Brent sees upside breach

Last Friday, we highlighted the risk of “a looming break-out over the near-term.”

At the time of writing, Brent has resurfaced above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), while also breaking past the upper bound of its downtrend that began since June 2022, as it looks to register back-to-back weekly advances.

To be clear, Brent prices remain bound within a tight $10 range so far this year, ensnared between the optimism surrounding China’s economic reopening on one hand, and on the other, fears of more demand-destroying rate hikes by major central banks.

Further upside for oil benchmarks is not a guarantee. Brent could still be dragged into sub-$80/bbl domain if global recession risks loom larger.

Still, Brent bulls are likely already setting the 100-day SMA in their sights, provided that market fundamentals can bolster support in addition to the bullish time spread structures.