Bitcoin still haunted by crypto woes

Last week, we cited “3 reasons Bitcoin might falter in March”.

At the time of writing, the value of the world’s largest crypto has fallen by about 2.9% so far this month.

Bitcoin is now limping along, barely keeping its head above the psychologically-important $22,000 mark for the time being.

Bitcoin is now trading below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) after dropping a leg lower last Friday (March 3^rd) on negative developments surrounding Silvergate – a key bank that’s focused on facilitating crypto payments

Looking at the longer-term trend, the fact that Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average has flattened suggests that crypto bulls are now directionless and dulled after their stellar runup at the onset of the year.

Unless (or “until”) Bitcoin can print a higher high above the $25k mark, conditions could be ripe for bears to seize control in the interim.

Further moves southward could see Bitcoin retest the mid-February lows/early-November highs around $21,500.

Should that support region fail, stronger support may be found at the mid-January range around $20,700.

 

Key near-term macro events

Risk assets overall could be moved by looming data releases and Fed speak:

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to deliver his semi-annual testimony before Congress later today (Tuesday, March 7^th)
• the latest US nonfarm payrolls report is due on Friday, March 10^th
• A week from today, we’ll get the latest printout on US inflation on March 14^th
• On March 22^nd, the FOMC will deliver its keenly-awaited verdict on how high it could send US interest rates.

 

Beyond such macro events over the near-term, the crypto world must still wade through its own turmoil.

The FTX implosion is still reverberating across the industry, with Silvergate Capital being the latest high-profile name to be ensnared.

Silvergate’s shuttering of its crypto payments network has only worsened market liquidity which had already been sapped by the policy tightening by major central banks.

 

Ultimately, this asset class may well require greater certainty about its infrastructure and regulatory framework, along with needing broader market sentiment to remain conducive for risk-taking activities, in order to firmly relegate the ongoing winter into the past.

Though Bitcoin’s year-to-date gains still standing at 35%, only time will tell just how well 2023 will pan out for Bitcoin and co.