$30k Bitcoin? Major events stand in the way

The world’s largest crypto by market cap has come off the back of four straight months of gains - its longest streak in over two years.

However, it kicked off the new month by falling 5.67% on May 1^st to drop below a widely-followed technical indicator - the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

Bitcoin is now attempting a recovery at the time of writing, straining back towards its 50-day SMA.

According to Bloomberg data, after Bitcoin notches a 4-month winning run, what tends to follow is eye-watering: a 260% surge over the ensuing 12 months.

 

However, the crypto world may first have to overcome some near-term risk events:

 

• Wednesday, May 3^rd: Federal Reserve rate decision

Markets are forecasting that this week’s 25-basis point rate hike by the Fed will be the last hike in this cycle.

If the Fed confirms that it’ll pause its rate hikes after this week, while leaving the door for rate cuts later this year, that may translate into a fresh boost for Bitcoin bulls.

 

• Friday, May 5^th: US nonfarm payrolls

Markets expect 180,000 new jobs were added to the US labour market in April, while the unemployment rate ticked up slightly higher to 3.6% (compared to 3.5% in March).

A stronger-than-expected showing in the jobs market may pave the way for even more Fed rate hikes, which could send shudders down the spines of crypto aficionados.

 

Although Bitcoin has shown the tendency to shrug off such tier-1 events on the macroeconomic calendar, of which there are plenty this week, upcoming developments may yet offer fresh catalysts for another shot at $30k Bitcoin.

Otherwise, it’s a long way down to its 100-day SMA around the $25k mark.